25% is today’s Number of the Day.
That is how much South African pork prices could rise as disease outbreaks reduce supply and place pressure on producers.
Gareth Edwards and Francis Herd unpack the warning after wholesale pork prices moved from approximately R32 to R40 per kilogram.
African swine fever has affected pigs across the country, while producers say the surplus stock that previously helped absorb price pressure has been depleted. Further increases are expected as the effects of tighter supply move through the value chain. (IOL)
That does not mean every pork product will automatically cost exactly 25% more at the supermarket.
The hosts make clear that the estimate is being extrapolated from the wholesale movement and that the eventual retail increase may be smaller. But some increase now appears likely.
The episode then widens the question.
Pork has traditionally occupied the space between cheaper chicken and more expensive beef. Many households moved towards it when beef became unaffordable.
But pork was already almost 20% more expensive year on year in May, according to the figures discussed in the episode.
If pork begins approaching beef prices, what becomes the next affordable option?
The pressure does not stop at meat. Fish, dairy and eggs also recorded increases during the period discussed.
Food across the pantry is becoming more expensive.
The salaries, as Gareth observes, are not moving with it.
Catch up on all Number of the Day episodes here: https://www.enca.com/number-day-podcast
Chapter List
(00:00) Why Pork Could Cost 25% More
(00:13) African Swine Fever Hits Pork Supply
(00:30) The Industry’s Price Buffer Is Gone
(01:08) Why Affordable Protein Matters
(01:37) Meat Inflation Was Already Rising
(02:12) Pork Was Already Up Nearly 20%
(02:27) Chicken, Pork and Beef Compared
(03:00) When the Cheaper Meat Catches Up
(03:18) Animal Disease and the Meat Market
(03:58) Some Food Prices Fall, Others Rise
(04:19) The Food Basket Hits All at Once
(04:24) Food Prices Rise. Salaries Do Not.
(05:06) The Meaning Behind 25%
