Number Of The Day | 1 Billion | 13 May 2026

One billion barrels of oil are now effectively missing from the global market.
In this episode of Number of the Day, Gareth Edwards and Francis Herd unpack the growing oil supply crisis linked to the war involving Iran and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
The International Energy Agency says millions of barrels that should have entered global markets have instead been trapped, delayed, or disrupted as shipping routes remain unstable and energy infrastructure across the Gulf comes under pressure.
The conversation explores why analysts believe the market may still be underestimating the scale of the crisis, why shortages could worsen later this year, and why JP Morgan expects oil prices to remain above $100 per barrel even if the conflict ended tomorrow.
For South Africans, the story quickly becomes personal. Fuel prices, inflation, transport costs, food prices, and household budgets all sit downstream from global oil markets.
1 billion barrels. A number shaping the global economy in real time.

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