The Iran-Israel-US conflict has entered a more dangerous phase, and in this episode of SA Explained, Gareth Edwards and Aakash Bramdeo unpack why South Africans should be paying close attention. Gareth opens by asking whether the military strategy from the US and Israel is actually working, and Aakash responds with the key uncertainty at the centre of the war: what was America really trying to achieve in the first place? Nearly three weeks in, the answer still feels unclear. At the same time, Iran has shown far more resilience than many expected, turning this into a longer and more complicated fight.
The episode then widens the lens beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Gareth raises the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as another crucial route that could tighten global oil supply and disrupt container traffic if the conflict spreads further. That matters because this is not only an oil story. It is also a global trade story, with consequences for imported goods, supply chains and the broader cost of living.
From there, the conversation brings the issue home. Aakash warns that South Africa is especially exposed if the conflict continues, with higher oil prices, rising inflation, fertiliser pressure, potential food shortages and the risk of fuel supply disruptions. He explains that South Africa imports large volumes of finished petrol and diesel and does not currently have enough refining capacity to shield itself from a prolonged shock.
But the episode does not stop at warning signs. It also explores whether South Africa could benefit if more shipping is forced around the Cape, and what that would require from local ports and infrastructure. This is a global conflict explained through a practical South African lens, with risk, opportunity and urgency all on the table.
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